Number 34
Which
technical indicators will work for you?
Example
parameter settings (RSI & Stochastics)
RSI
parameter settings
RSI
articles and reports
Signals
generated by RSI
1. Extreme
values:
Crosses extreme values, 70/30. The 70% and 30% levels
are used as warning signals. An RSI above 70% is considered
overbought and below 30% is considered oversold.
Double
Tops and Bottoms:
Traders watch for double tops or what Wilder referred
to as "failure swings." If the RSI makes a double
top formation, with the first top above 70% and the
second top below the first, you get a sell signal
when the RSI falls below the level of the dip. Conversely,
a double bottom at or below 30% (with the first low
below 30% and the second at or above the same level)
gives you a buy signal when the RSI breaks above the
previous peak.
2. Divergences and Convergences:
Trend of the RSI relative to the trend of the price
is where a trader sees the convergences or divergences.
A convergence is when the price is downtrending,
yet the RSI begins to uptrend (the to lines converge).
A convergence is a bullish warning signalr. A divergence
is then the price is uptrending and the RSI begins
to downtrend (the lines separate). The divergence
is a bearish warning signal.
Examples
of the different RSI parameter settings


Stochastic
parameter settings
Stochastic
articles and reports
Signals
generated by Stochastic Oscillator
The Stochastic
Oscillator generates signals in three main ways:
-
Extreme values when the 20% and 80% trigger lines
are crossed. Buy when the stochastic falls below
20% and then rises above that level. Sell when
the stochastic rises above 80% and then falls
below that level. The pattern of the stochastic
is also important; when it stays below 40-50%
for a period and then swings above, the market
is shifting from overbought and offering a buy
signal. And vice versa when it stays above 50-60%
for a period of time.
-
Crossovers
between the %D and %K lines. Buy when the %K line
rises above the %D line and sell when the %K line
falls below the %D line. Beware of short-term
crossovers. The preferred crossover is when the
%K line intersects after the peak of the %D line
(right-hand crossover). Crossovers often provide
choppy signals that need to be filtered through
the use of other indicators.
-
Divergences
between the stochastic and the underlying price.
For example, if prices are making a series of
new highs and the stochastic is trending lower,
you may have a warning signal of weakness in the
market.
For a more
conservative approach, extreme values should be used
as the warning signals and the follow through the
50 line for the confirmation of the trend change.
Some traders also state that by moving the extreme
values to the 10 and 90 lines ensures a more reliable
signal.
Examples
of the different slow stochastics parameter settings

The general
rule of thumb for most indicators is that when you
increase the parameter the indicator "smooths out."
Larger numbers for parameters make the indicator less
sensitive to recent moves and the longer-term trend
is more apparent. When you decrease the parameter
value, the indicator becomes more sensitive to the
recent price moves and allows the trader to react
more quickly. The shortfall to this is that the indicator
no longer shows the longer-term trend well and may
report signals during a correction rather than a breakout
(which are what some short term traders are looking
for).
Choosing
some technical indicators
Now that we
have covered trend, timeframes and parameter settings,
we can get down to choosing some complimentary technical
indicators.
So here is
the next tip. According to Bollinger, one of the biggest
mistakes in technical analysis is the multiple counting
of the same information. For example, using different
indicators all derived from the same series of closing
prices to confirm one another.
There are
quite a few technical indicators featured on ChartFilter.com.
Where do you begin? I would recommend starting with
the following approach to using a combination of indicators
in your analysis.
- Start with moving
averages and draw trendlines to give you an idea
of mid to long-term trends.
- Use one or two oscillators,
such as MACD, stochastics, RSI, etc. Pick one
or two that you feel most comfortable with and
go with them. I often use MACD (because it provides
such clear signals) and one other. MACD compliments,
but does not replace, some of the others which
are better suited as overbought/oversold indicators.
- Use a volume indicator,
such as OBV, MFI, etc. (see the last issue of
ChartFilter newsletter for examples of their value).
- You might want to
check if one of the bands or channels gives you
any additional information (Bollinger bands, price
channels, MA envelopes, etc.).
- You may also want
to use a more advanced indicator. I recommend
Wilder's indicators; DMI, ADX and the Parabolic
SAR. These are in themselves complimentary indicators
and provide extremely useful buy and sell signals.
Once you have chosen
a base set of indicators, you will need to fit them
to the curve you are trading. To do this, take a
charting program (we suggest StockTools
), take your/any stock, apply indicators and alter
parameters so that the signals line up to your curve.
If you need some help choosing some indicators,
try this
page out.
Sample
checklist
Point values
This checklist will be
scored the following way: if sideways or no signal,
put in negating column.
In this case I
have chosen only a couple of easy indicators to
start with. The following checklist on MSO is more
complex.
SAMPLE
simple DJIA technical checklist
Trendlines
& Patterns
+/-
1 point - strong pattern, major trend
+/- 0.5 point - weak pattern, minor trend
Simple
Moving Averages (report
)
+/-
1 point - Above or below price line
+/- 1 point - moving averages cross
+/-
1 point - signal line cross
+/- 1 point - zero line cross
+/-
1 point - convergence / divergence with
price line
+/- 1 point
- crossed extreme point (30/70)
+/- 1 point - convergence / divergence
with price line
|

| Stock
Check List - DJIA short term trend checklist |
| Stock: DJIA |
BUY/SELL Rating: +2
|
Date: sample (April 2005)
|
| Indicator |
Confirming |
Negating |
| Trending Indicators |
| Trendlines |
bounced
off support +0.5 |
Major down |
5 & 20 day SMA's
(no cross yet) |
5 day
SMA below price line |
20 day SMA above
price line
no 5 & 20 day sma cross |
| MACD |
MACD signal line
cross did not quite cross yet (+0)
MACD-H convergence
MACD-H zero line cross |
|
| RSI |
RSI
crosses up through 30
RSI convergence, trend did not fully break,
+0.5 |
|
|
| Points: |
5 positive |
3 negative |
Other sample
DJIA checklists:
Sample
checklist applied to MSO over a short period.
| Applying
a technical checklist to MSO |
March
6, 2005 |
| Applying
a technical checklist to MSO |
March
7, 2005 |
| Applying
a technical checklist to MSO |
March
8, 2005 |
| Applying
a technical checklist to MSO |
March
9, 2005 |
| Applying
a technical checklist to MSO |
March
10, 2005 |
| Applying
a technical checklist to MSO |
March
11, 2005 |
| Applying
a technical checklist to MSO |
March
14, 2005 |
| Applying
a technical checklist to MSO |
March
17, 2005 |
| Applying
a technical checklist to MSO |
March
18, 2005 |
| Applying
a technical checklist to MSO |
March
21, 2005 |
| Applying
a technical checklist to MSO |
March
22, 2005 |
| Applying
a technical checklist to MSO |
March
23, 2005 |
| Applying
a technical checklist to MSO |
March
24, 2005 |
| Applying
a technical checklist to MSO |
March
30, 2005 |
| Applying
a technical checklist to MSO |
March
31 , 2005 |
| Applying
a technical checklist to MSO |
April
3 , 2005 |
| Applying
a technical checklist to MSO |
April
5 , 2005 |
The answer
to the question: "Which indicators work for me?"
can best be answered by building a checklist, setting
up your indicators to your timeframe, testing, fixing
and repeating. When you are confident in your signals,
then you will know what indicators work for you.
Some basic
rules should apply no matter what your indicator choices
are. Ride your rights and cut your losses. When you
are wrong, find out why (there is always a reason)
and fix the system so you do not repeat the mistake.
Stick to the rules - they are there for a reason.
Back
to PAGE 1
Putting
ChartFilter into context
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apply what you learned in this newsletter ChartFilter
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charting, you should be able to build and refine
your system. Click
here to learn more about StockTools.
ChartFilter
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