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Number 34

Which technical indicators will work for you?


Example parameter settings (RSI & Stochastics)

RSI parameter settings

RSI articles and reports

Signals generated by RSI

1. Extreme values:

Crosses extreme values, 70/30. The 70% and 30% levels are used as warning signals. An RSI above 70% is considered overbought and below 30% is considered oversold.
Double Tops and Bottoms:

Traders watch for double tops or what Wilder referred to as "failure swings." If the RSI makes a double top formation, with the first top above 70% and the second top below the first, you get a sell signal when the RSI falls below the level of the dip. Conversely, a double bottom at or below 30% (with the first low below 30% and the second at or above the same level) gives you a buy signal when the RSI breaks above the previous peak.

 

2. Divergences and Convergences:

Trend of the RSI relative to the trend of the price is where a trader sees the convergences or divergences. A convergence is when the price is downtrending, yet the RSI begins to uptrend (the to lines converge). A convergence is a bullish warning signalr. A divergence is then the price is uptrending and the RSI begins to downtrend (the lines separate). The divergence is a bearish warning signal.

Examples of the different RSI parameter settings



 

Stochastic parameter settings

Stochastic articles and reports

Signals generated by Stochastic Oscillator

The Stochastic Oscillator generates signals in three main ways:

  1. Extreme values when the 20% and 80% trigger lines are crossed. Buy when the stochastic falls below 20% and then rises above that level. Sell when the stochastic rises above 80% and then falls below that level. The pattern of the stochastic is also important; when it stays below 40-50% for a period and then swings above, the market is shifting from overbought and offering a buy signal. And vice versa when it stays above 50-60% for a period of time.

  2. Crossovers between the %D and %K lines. Buy when the %K line rises above the %D line and sell when the %K line falls below the %D line. Beware of short-term crossovers. The preferred crossover is when the %K line intersects after the peak of the %D line (right-hand crossover). Crossovers often provide choppy signals that need to be filtered through the use of other indicators.

  3. Divergences between the stochastic and the underlying price. For example, if prices are making a series of new highs and the stochastic is trending lower, you may have a warning signal of weakness in the market.

For a more conservative approach, extreme values should be used as the warning signals and the follow through the 50 line for the confirmation of the trend change. Some traders also state that by moving the extreme values to the 10 and 90 lines ensures a more reliable signal.

Examples of the different slow stochastics parameter settings

The general rule of thumb for most indicators is that when you increase the parameter the indicator "smooths out." Larger numbers for parameters make the indicator less sensitive to recent moves and the longer-term trend is more apparent. When you decrease the parameter value, the indicator becomes more sensitive to the recent price moves and allows the trader to react more quickly. The shortfall to this is that the indicator no longer shows the longer-term trend well and may report signals during a correction rather than a breakout (which are what some short term traders are looking for).

Choosing some technical indicators

Now that we have covered trend, timeframes and parameter settings, we can get down to choosing some complimentary technical indicators.

So here is the next tip. According to Bollinger, one of the biggest mistakes in technical analysis is the multiple counting of the same information. For example, using different indicators all derived from the same series of closing prices to confirm one another.

There are quite a few technical indicators featured on ChartFilter.com. Where do you begin? I would recommend starting with the following approach to using a combination of indicators in your analysis.

  1. Start with moving averages and draw trendlines to give you an idea of mid to long-term trends.
  2. Use one or two oscillators, such as MACD, stochastics, RSI, etc. Pick one or two that you feel most comfortable with and go with them. I often use MACD (because it provides such clear signals) and one other. MACD compliments, but does not replace, some of the others which are better suited as overbought/oversold indicators.
  3. Use a volume indicator, such as OBV, MFI, etc. (see the last issue of ChartFilter newsletter for examples of their value).
  4. You might want to check if one of the bands or channels gives you any additional information (Bollinger bands, price channels, MA envelopes, etc.).
  5. You may also want to use a more advanced indicator. I recommend Wilder's indicators; DMI, ADX and the Parabolic SAR. These are in themselves complimentary indicators and provide extremely useful buy and sell signals.

Once you have chosen a base set of indicators, you will need to fit them to the curve you are trading. To do this, take a charting program (we suggest StockTools ), take your/any stock, apply indicators and alter parameters so that the signals line up to your curve. If you need some help choosing some indicators, try this page out.

Sample checklist

Point values

This checklist will be scored the following way: if sideways or no signal, put in negating column.

In this case I have chosen only a couple of easy indicators to start with. The following checklist on MSO is more complex.

SAMPLE simple DJIA technical checklist

Trendlines & Patterns

+/- 1 point - strong pattern, major trend
+/- 0.5 point - weak pattern, minor trend

Simple Moving Averages (report )

+/- 1 point - Above or below price line
+/- 1 point - moving averages cross

MACD (report)

+/- 1 point - signal line cross
+/- 1 point - zero line cross

MACD-Histogram (report)

+/- 1 point - convergence / divergence with price line

RSI (report)

+/- 1 point - crossed extreme point (30/70)
+/- 1 point - convergence / divergence with price line


Chart of DJIA

Stock Check List - DJIA short term trend checklist
Stock: DJIA BUY/SELL Rating: +2 Date: sample (April 2005)
Indicator Confirming Negating
Trending Indicators
Trendlines bounced off support +0.5 Major down
5 & 20 day SMA's
(no cross yet)
5 day SMA below price line

20 day SMA above price line

no 5 & 20 day sma cross

MACD

MACD signal line cross did not quite cross yet (+0)

MACD-H convergence
MACD-H zero line cross


RSI

RSI crosses up through 30

RSI convergence, trend did not fully break, +0.5

 
Points: 5 positive 3 negative

Other sample DJIA checklists:

Date
Score
Short Term
Medium Term
Long Term
May 6th, 2005
4
4.5
See checklist
3
See checklist
-3.5
See checklist
April 29th, 2005
-14.5
-4.5
See checklist
-5
See checklist
-5
See checklist
* In the 29th long term trend list, the RSI was substituted for the momentum
April 22nd, 2005
-15
-5
See checklist
-5
See checklist
-5
See checklist
* In the 22nd Short term trend list, the RSI was substituted for the Slow Stochastic
April 19th, 2005
-14
-4
See checklist
-5
See checklist
-5
See checklist

Sample checklist applied to MSO over a short period.

Applying a technical checklist to MSO March 6, 2005
Applying a technical checklist to MSO March 7, 2005
Applying a technical checklist to MSO March 8, 2005
Applying a technical checklist to MSO March 9, 2005
Applying a technical checklist to MSO March 10, 2005
Applying a technical checklist to MSO March 11, 2005
Applying a technical checklist to MSO March 14, 2005
Applying a technical checklist to MSO March 17, 2005
Applying a technical checklist to MSO March 18, 2005
Applying a technical checklist to MSO March 21, 2005
Applying a technical checklist to MSO March 22, 2005
Applying a technical checklist to MSO March 23, 2005
Applying a technical checklist to MSO March 24, 2005
Applying a technical checklist to MSO March 30, 2005
Applying a technical checklist to MSO March 31 , 2005
Applying a technical checklist to MSO April 3 , 2005
Applying a technical checklist to MSO April 5 , 2005

 

Conclusion

The answer to the question: "Which indicators work for me?" can best be answered by building a checklist, setting up your indicators to your timeframe, testing, fixing and repeating. When you are confident in your signals, then you will know what indicators work for you.

Some basic rules should apply no matter what your indicator choices are. Ride your rights and cut your losses. When you are wrong, find out why (there is always a reason) and fix the system so you do not repeat the mistake. Stick to the rules - they are there for a reason.

Back to PAGE 1

Putting ChartFilter into context

If you want to apply what you learned in this newsletter ChartFilter StockTools has a built in portfolio manager to help track your decisions. Along with the advanced technical charting, you should be able to build and refine your system. Click here to learn more about StockTools.

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Fundamentals and Technical Handbook

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