Building
a technical checklist
Charts
aren't the final solution
to making smart investment
decisions. They don't
provide all the answers
but they are an important
investment tool. If
you are a serious investor
you need charts as much
as a plumber needs a pipe
wrench. Sure, he could
do his job without the
proper tools but could
he do it nearly as efficiently
and effectively? And,
if the tools are readily
available, isn't it foolhardy
to continue working without
them?
Charts,
and technical analysis,
will completely change
your way of relating to
potential investments.
They provide a filtering
mechanism or framework
for selecting investments
that provide a good potential
for profit.
Let
me show you how very quickly.
Within
minutes of looking at
a price chart I can tell
whether I'm interested
in further information
on a particular market
or not. This saves me
hours of wading through
miscellaneous reports,
analyses, trading tips,
and newsletters. Once
I've selected potentially
profitable investments
I plan my strategy according
to sound principles, including
fundamental analysis.
This
business-like approach
to investing may not offer
the thrills of buying
and selling on the spur
of the moment but it does
lead to greater profits
and restful nights. You
may be thinking, "I
don't know what all the
fuss is about. Investing
boils down to simply knowing
when to get in and when
to get out."
You
would be perfectly right;
successful investing comes
down to a matter of correctly
answering these two questions:
-
WHAT to buy and sell.
-
WHEN to buy and sell.
If
you've lost money on some
of your investments you
already know what all
the fuss is about.
When
to buy and sell can be
solved by the use of a
technical buy/sell checklist.
This solves half the battle.
Three
Simple Rules
- BUY
only when the long
term trend is UP.
- SELL
only when the long
term trend is DOWN.
- STAND
ASIDE when the long
term trend is SIDEWAYS.
Buy
when the price is going
up and sell when it is
going down. Go with
the trend. It sounds
so simple, doesn't it?
Yet, how many times have
you purchased an investment
without even considering
the long term trend -
the direction prices are
headed? The price of a
stock or commodity, any
market for that matter,
acts like a fully loaded
freight train. Once a
direction is established
it becomes resistant to
change. And the longer
it heads in one direction
the greater the momentum.
Day
traders are in a category
all their own, of course!
(And they're usually the
first to admit it!) The
long term trend is relatively
meaningless to a daytrader
- however daytraders must
still anticipate the direction
of the trend no matter
how short-lived or ephemeral.
If you daytrade you just
play by a different set
of rules; the fundamental
actions of the market
don't change.
So,
next problem, how can
we confirm what direction
the trend is going and
when it has changed? We
need a system that removes
our emotions from the
decisions, we might see
what we want rather than
what exists.
There
are several forms of checklists,
but they all follow the
same principle. Martin
Pring, a well known analyst,
states the art of technical
analysis is "to identify
trend changes at an early
stage and to maintain
an investment posture
until the weight of the
evidence indicates that
the trend has reversed."
(Technical Analysis Explained
by Martin J. Pring, 1991).
Which is exactly what
our checklist should let
us accomplish, to answer
three questions: when
to get in, when to get
out, when to stand aside.
Also
is important to note that
checklists should vary
from trader to trader
based on their trading
style, risk level, time
frame. The following checklist
is for trading the longer
term trend.
The
point system in the checklist
ranges from around +20
to -20, the higher the
number, the stronger the
uptrend (and further into
the uptrend), the lower
the number, the stronger
the downtrend (and further
into the downtrend). Sideways
trends trend to have a
static number range.
Rules
to this checklist: